PI Market Mastery · Reference
PI Calendar & Seasonality
Rankings.io internal strategy briefing
Slide 1
The PI Calendar
- Seasonality, Demand, and How to Talk About It
- PI ICP Oracle Series | Rankings.io Team Enablement | August 2026
Slide 2
Why seasonality matters
- Founders judge us on signed cases. Cases move with weather, driving, and holidays.
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- The stakes
- Explain seasonality before the client asks: you look like a partner.
- Explain it after the 'results are down' email: you sound like an excuse.
- Every rep and AM should know the calendar cold, nationally and by market.
- Local knowledge (snowbirds, monsoon, deer season) is proof we know their market.
- The core rule
- Injury volume = exposure x severity.
- Exposure: miles driven, people outside, risk behavior.
- Severity: speed, impairment, unprotected road users (bikes, motorcycles, pedestrians).
- Seasons move both. Compare year over year, never month over month.
Slide 3
Winter (Dec to Feb)
- Cautious drivers, fewer miles, high count, low severity
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Drivers slow down, leave earlier, skip optional trips. Snow-belt crash counts rise but severity drops. Fender benders, not catastrophic cases.
- Motorcycles, cyclists, and pedestrians are off the road, so the highest-value MVA cases thin out.
- Premises liability spikes: ice, slush in entryways, parking lot falls. Best slip and fall intake of the year in cold markets.
- Late Nov through Dec: search demand and hiring drop hard. Valid claims wait until after the holidays.
- January: intake surge. Deferred holiday claims, New Year's Eve DUI crashes, resolutions to 'deal with it.' Strongest signup month for many firms.
- Fewest miles driven of the year. National fatalities bottom out in Jan and Feb.
Slide 4
Spring (Mar to May)
- Roads refill, motorcycles return, construction opens
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Motorcycle and work zone season
- Riders return, cones go up. High-value MVA and construction cases start.
- Spring break travel
- Florida, Arizona, Texas coast, Gulf. Tourists, rentals, alcohol.
- Thaw and potholes
- Property damage and single vehicle claims in cold states.
- Tax refund season
- Feb to Apr. More cars purchased, more discretionary driving.
- Memorial Day
- Opens the '100 Deadliest Days' (Memorial Day to Labor Day) for teen driver fatalities.
- Intake
- Solid months. Volume builds from March into May.
Slide 5
Summer (Jun to Aug): the paradox
- Crashes peak. Signups soften. Own this before the client feels it.
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Peak
- fatalities and miles driven nationally
- July 4
- consistently among the deadliest days
- Soft
- signups per crash in Jul and Aug
- Heat effects: tire blowouts, overheating, road trips, more alcohol, more teens driving, longer daylight and evening driving.
- Claimants are on vacation, kids are home, decisions get pushed. Firms sign fewer cases per crash. That is claimant behavior, not a marketing failure.
- Late August: back to school. Congestion, buses, teen commuters. Volume rebounds into September.
Slide 6
Fall (Sep to Nov)
- Strong start, then the holiday pause
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Sep and Oct
- Strong intake months in most markets.
- Routines resume, people act on summer injuries.
- Halloween: pedestrian and child injuries.
- November
- Fall-back (early Nov): pedestrian crash risk jumps in the evening commute for weeks.
- Deer season Oct to Nov: Midwest, PA, upstate NY. Single vehicle and swerve crashes.
- Thanksgiving
- Heavy travel, high crash count.
- Near-zero hiring for the week.
- Demand pauses until January. Prep now, not in December.
Slide 7
Sunbelt markets run inverse
- Arizona and Florida peak in winter, soften in summer
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Arizona (Phoenix)
- Snowbird season Nov to Apr adds hundreds of thousands of older, unfamiliar drivers. Volume and case value peak in winter and spring.
- Summer heat (110+) empties the roads. Jun to Sep softens. Heat cases rise: tire failures, engine failure crashes, job-site heat exposure.
- Monsoon Jul to Sep: dust storms and flash floods, sudden crash clusters.
- Phoenix budgets: heaviest Jan to Apr, hold in summer, ramp again October.
- Florida
- Snowbirds and spring break drive the Jan to Apr peak. Older drivers, tourists, rental cars.
- Summer: tourists thin, daily thunderstorms cause wet-road crashes.
- Hurricane season Aug to Oct: a landfall can freeze intake for two weeks then spike premises and auto claims.
- HB 837 (2023) lowered the baseline; seasonality sits on top of it.
Slide 8
Texas and California
- Heat and freight vs. rain and fire
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Texas
- Summer heat drives blowouts and long-haul truck fatigue on I-10, I-35, I-45.
- Trucking cases hold year round. Freight does not take a season.
- Gulf coast hurricanes (Houston), spring hail, Hill Country deer, holiday travel to and from Mexico.
- Houston and Dallas show less seasonality than the national average because of population growth. Set expectations accordingly.
- California
- First rains in Nov after a dry summer create oil slick crashes. Rainy season Nov to Feb raises MVA counts in LA and the Bay.
- Summer: wildfire smoke and closures, tourist traffic on coastal routes.
- Motorcycle season is nearly year round, so no winter dropoff in high-value MVA.
- Holiday corridors (I-5, I-15 to Vegas) spike Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Slide 9
The snow belt
- Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Winter
- High crash count, low severity.
- Slip and fall season.
- Motorcycles off the road.
- Dec dips, Jan surges.
- Apr to Oct
- Motorcycle season and construction season.
- Highest-value MVA cases cluster here.
- Spring potholes, fall deer.
- Jul and Aug soften, Sep rebounds.
- Rep note
- Chicago and Detroit clients feel the summer dip hardest because their best cases are seasonal. Name it in June.
Slide 10
Other markets to know
- Steadier states need a real explanation, not a seasonal one
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Nevada (Las Vegas)
- Convention calendar beats weather. CES in Jan, fight weekends, NFR in Dec. Tourists, DUI, Strip pedestrians. Summer heat softens locals.
- Georgia (Atlanta)
- Mild winters, one ice event can produce a week of pileups. Back to school early August. Steadiest big market.
- New York
- Winter slip and fall dominates. Summer construction, scaffold and labor law. Pedestrian and cyclist cases spring to fall.
- Colorado
- Ski season Nov to Apr: mountain roads and I-70 pileups. Summer tourism, motorcycles, construction.
- Louisiana
- Mardi Gras DUI and pedestrian spike, hurricane season, offshore and maritime year round.
- Rule of thumb
- The flatter the market, the more a dip points to intake, competition, or campaign, not the calendar.
Slide 11
MVA signup rating by month
- National pattern, 1 to 10. Flip summer and winter for AZ and FL.
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Jan
- 10
- Holiday claims land, NYE DUI
- Feb
- 9
- Tax refunds, steady
- Mar
- 9
- Spring break, riders return
- Apr
- 8
- Construction opens
- May
- 8
- Memorial Day kicks off
- Jun
- 7
- Vacations start, softens
- Jul
- 6
- Crashes peak, hiring stalls
- Aug
- 6
- Soft, rebounds late month
- Sep
- 9
- Back to school, routines
- Oct
- 9
- Fall-back, deer, strong
- Nov
- 6
- Thanksgiving pause
- Dec
- 5
- Weakest, waits for Jan
- 10 = best signup month of the year for a typical MVA firm. Index, not forecast. Validate against HubSpot signups by market before it goes in front of a client.
Slide 12
Sunbelt ratings: Arizona and Florida
- Same 1 to 10 scale. Winter peaks, summer softens.
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Arizona (Phoenix)
- Jan
- 10
- Snowbird peak
- Feb
- 10
- Peak, spring training
- Mar
- 9
- Spring break, snowbirds
- Apr
- 8
- Snowbirds leave
- May
- 7
- Heat arrives
- Jun
- 5
- 110+, roads thin
- Jul
- 5
- Monsoon clusters
- Aug
- 5
- Monsoon, heat
- Sep
- 6
- Cooling, rebound
- Oct
- 8
- Snowbirds return
- Nov
- 8
- Peak builds
- Dec
- 7
- Holiday pause
- Florida
- Jan
- 10
- Snowbird peak
- Feb
- 10
- Peak, tourists
- Mar
- 10
- Spring break
- Apr
- 8
- Snowbirds leave
- May
- 7
- Locals only
- Jun
- 6
- Storms, softens
- Jul
- 6
- Soft, vacations
- Aug
- 5
- Hurricane risk
- Sep
- 5
- Hurricane peak
- Oct
- 7
- Storms clear
- Nov
- 7
- Snowbirds arrive
- Dec
- 7
- Holiday pause
- Sunbelt firms feel the summer dip in lead volume, not just signups. Say it in April, budget for it in May.
Slide 13
How to talk about it with clients
- Proactive note, not reactive excuse
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- 1
- Send it before they see it
- Seasonality context goes in the monthly report before the number lands. 'July is historically the softest signup month in your market. Here is last July for comparison.'
- 2
- Always year over year
- Same month last year, plus lead volume by channel. Month over month during a seasonal shift is how you lose a client.
- 3
- Reframe summer
- Crashes are up, signups are down. That gap is claimant behavior and follow-up. Ask what intake does with a lead that goes quiet for a week. Push text-first cadence.
Slide 14
Use the calendar for budget
- Move dollars to when claimants act
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Push spend
- January
- March to May
- September and October
- LSA and PPC dollars belong here. Make sure budgets are uncapped when phones ring.
- Hold or shift
- Thanksgiving through Christmas
- Mid summer in hot-state markets
- Reallocate to content, video, and reviews. Build assets while demand sleeps.
- Prep the surge
- Mid December: LSA budgets ready, intake staffed, landing pages tested.
- A client whose phones ring off the hook in January forgets a soft July.
Slide 15
Local knowledge is proof
- Naming their season signals we know their market better than the last agency
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- Phoenix
- 'Your best 90 days start when the snowbirds land in November.'
- Chicago
- 'Bike and motorcycle season is your case value season. Summer dips are signup behavior, not lead volume.'
- Miami
- 'Spring break and snowbirds carry Q1. Hurricane season is your wildcard.'
- Houston
- 'Freight runs year round, so trucking should never look seasonal on your dashboard.'
Slide 16
How to advise clients: the summary
- Four moves, every month, in this order
- Rankings.io | PI ICP Oracle | Seasonality
- 1
- Diagnose
- Is this the calendar or the campaign? Check YoY, lead volume by channel, and intake follow-up before conceding on marketing.
- 2
- Context
- Put the seasonal note in the report before the number lands. Name their market's season: snowbirds, monsoon, deer, freight.
- 3
- Adjust
- Move LSA and PPC into Jan, spring, Sep and Oct. Shift dead weeks to content, video, and reviews.
- 4
- Prepare
- Mid Dec and late Aug: budgets uncapped, intake staffed, pages tested. Own the surge so the dip is forgotten.
- Rule: seasonality explains a dip once, year over year, and before the client asks. Never twice, never month over month, never after.
Rebuilt from the source doc for the Oracle. Internal — not for external distribution.